By Erik Nieves, co-founder and CEO of Plus One Robotics
The US decision to end the de minimis tariff exemption on packages under $800 has upended small package trade and set off a chain reaction in global shipping.
Postal operators across Europe, Asia and the Pacific have suspended deliveries to the US, leading to backlogs, surges in returns and rerouted freight.
For e-commerce retailers and warehouse operators, the sudden disruption is exposing just how fragile supply chains can be.
As trade routes shift and parcels pile up, automation is emerging as a stabilizing force. AI-driven robotics, supported by human-in-the-loop systems, give warehouses the flexibility to handle unpredictable spikes in volume without grinding to a halt.
In a moment when traditional processes are under strain, automation is proving essential to keeping goods moving.
Tariffs, Trade, and Turmoil
Previously, millions of low-value items entered the US duty-free. Now, importers must prepay duties at rates that can exceed 25 percent, plus fixed surcharges ranging from $80 to $200 per parcel. Letters, documents, and gifts under $100 remain exempt, but the vast majority of e-commerce parcels no longer qualify for tax-free status. Facing uncertainty and new compliance burdens, international postal services have suspended US deliveries altogether.
This shock has ricocheted through the supply chain. Freight activity in early 2025 showed a 32.2 percent year-over-year increase in units shipped despite a 20 percent decline in total freight volume. This indicates that shippers are consolidating freight to minimize costs. Air freight capacity between China and the US has dropped nearly 30 percent since the removal of the de minimis exemption.
For warehouses, these dynamics manifest as unpredictable spikes, including waves of returned packages and delayed shipments. Many of these returns stem directly from the end of the de minimis exemption. When duties are not prepaid, US consumers often confront unexpected tariff bills at delivery and reject their packages, leading to returns and further disruptions.
Human-in-the-Loop Robotics: A Shock Absorber for Warehouse Operations
Traditional automation like conveyor belts or pick-to-light systems was designed for predictable processes. However, recent trade upheavals have created a highly volatile environment. In this context, AI-driven robotics with human oversight do not replace existing systems; they complement them, adding the necessary flexibility to manage unexpected shifts in volume.
For instance, robots equipped with AI-enabled vision systems can sort, pick, and palletize diverse parcels, while human supervisors oversee multiple robots remotely. This configuration allows human operators to step in via the cloud only when exceptions arise, maintaining smooth operations.
This model has two key benefits: it manages surges effectively while maintaining consistency, and reduces errors in unpredictable flows. AI systems excel in recognizing patterns and adapting to varying parcel types, while human oversight helps address anomalies, ensuring that operations run smoothly.
Automation’s Economic Rationale
The financial benefits of automation become increasingly compelling as volatility rises. As reported by Fortune Business Insights, the AI-in-warehousing market was valued at $10.27 billion in 2024, projected to reach $61.36 billion by 2032. The broader warehouse automation market is expected to grow significantly, nearly doubling by 2028.
Higher import duties, due to the end of the de minimis exemption, increase landed costs and squeeze operating margins. Automation can help mitigate these expenses by increasing throughput, lowering error rates, and minimizing labor-related overhead. This creates a win-win scenario for operators aiming to improve efficiency while keeping service levels high.
Six Steps to Automation Success
For organizations looking to integrate automation amid ongoing global disruption, a strategic approach is vital. Here are six foundational steps to consider:
-
Get Buy-In: Early engagement with frontline workers is crucial. Automation should be framed as a way to ease physical strain and improve workplace safety.
-
Collaborate Across Teams: Ensure alignment among stakeholders—from executives to IT teams—on objectives and key performance indicators (KPIs) for the automation process.
-
Consider Risks and Edge Cases: Disruptive events amplify variability. Anticipate fragile products or irregular parcels in vendor selection and workflow design.
-
Train and Test Thoroughly: Implement training programs that emphasize refining machine learning and preparing human workers for evolving workflows.
-
Create a Problem-Solving Strategy: Establish protocols for technical failures or process disruptions to minimize downtime during peak volumes.
- Commit to Continuous Training: Ongoing training and improvement are vital as tariff environments and shipping patterns evolve.
Beyond Throughput: Building True Resilience
Automation’s biggest value, especially during global disruptions, lies in building resilience. Predicting demand with AI tools helps companies balance inventory levels, reducing shortages and overstock.
Inside warehouses, integrated management systems offer real-time visibility into parcel movement, ensuring managers know where goods are and how quickly they are moving. This allows for proactive intervention to keep operations on track.
Robotics operates alongside human workers, automating repetitive tasks while allowing supervisors to address unusual situations, combining the consistency of machines with the judgment of human oversight. This dual approach helps maintain warehouse operations amidst sudden changes.
Looking Ahead: Robotics as the New Baseline
Global trade will likely continue to face uncertainty. Factors like tariffs, geopolitical issues, and supply-demand imbalances necessitate that warehouses prepare for unexpected challenges. The intersection of AI, robotics, and human expertise presents a promising path forward.
When automation systems enhance human adaptability, warehouses can absorb shocks without losing momentum. This agility is essential for navigating the complexities of modern global commerce. With billions invested in warehouse automation, new AI tools are setting the stage for long-term resilience in supply chains.
About the author: Erik Nieves is co-founder and CEO of Plus One Robotics, a software company developing 3D and AI-powered vision software for robots in logistics automation. Previously, Erik was technology director for Yaskawa Motoman Robotics, overseeing technology roadmaps and emerging applications. During his 25+ year tenure at Yaskawa, he held various leadership roles both in the US and abroad. Erik also serves on the board at Robotics Industries Association (RIA) and actively contributes to public policy on robotics.
By Erik Nieves, co-founder and CEO of Plus One Robotics
The US decision to end the de minimis tariff exemption on packages under $800 has upended small package trade and set off a chain reaction in global shipping.
Postal operators across Europe, Asia and the Pacific have suspended deliveries to the US, leading to backlogs, surges in returns and rerouted freight.
For e-commerce retailers and warehouse operators, the sudden disruption is exposing just how fragile supply chains can be.
As trade routes shift and parcels pile up, automation is emerging as a stabilizing force. AI-driven robotics, supported by human-in-the-loop systems, give warehouses the flexibility to handle unpredictable spikes in volume without grinding to a halt.
In a moment when traditional processes are under strain, automation is proving essential to keeping goods moving.
Tariffs, Trade, and Turmoil
Previously, millions of low-value items entered the US duty-free. Now, importers must prepay duties at rates that can exceed 25 percent, plus fixed surcharges ranging from $80 to $200 per parcel. Letters, documents, and gifts under $100 remain exempt, but the vast majority of e-commerce parcels no longer qualify for tax-free status. Facing uncertainty and new compliance burdens, international postal services have suspended US deliveries altogether.
This shock has ricocheted through the supply chain. Freight activity in early 2025 showed a 32.2 percent year-over-year increase in units shipped despite a 20 percent decline in total freight volume. This indicates that shippers are consolidating freight to minimize costs. Air freight capacity between China and the US has dropped nearly 30 percent since the removal of the de minimis exemption.
For warehouses, these dynamics manifest as unpredictable spikes, including waves of returned packages and delayed shipments. Many of these returns stem directly from the end of the de minimis exemption. When duties are not prepaid, US consumers often confront unexpected tariff bills at delivery and reject their packages, leading to returns and further disruptions.
Human-in-the-Loop Robotics: A Shock Absorber for Warehouse Operations
Traditional automation like conveyor belts or pick-to-light systems was designed for predictable processes. However, recent trade upheavals have created a highly volatile environment. In this context, AI-driven robotics with human oversight do not replace existing systems; they complement them, adding the necessary flexibility to manage unexpected shifts in volume.
For instance, robots equipped with AI-enabled vision systems can sort, pick, and palletize diverse parcels, while human supervisors oversee multiple robots remotely. This configuration allows human operators to step in via the cloud only when exceptions arise, maintaining smooth operations.
This model has two key benefits: it manages surges effectively while maintaining consistency, and reduces errors in unpredictable flows. AI systems excel in recognizing patterns and adapting to varying parcel types, while human oversight helps address anomalies, ensuring that operations run smoothly.
Automation’s Economic Rationale
The financial benefits of automation become increasingly compelling as volatility rises. As reported by Fortune Business Insights, the AI-in-warehousing market was valued at $10.27 billion in 2024, projected to reach $61.36 billion by 2032. The broader warehouse automation market is expected to grow significantly, nearly doubling by 2028.
Higher import duties, due to the end of the de minimis exemption, increase landed costs and squeeze operating margins. Automation can help mitigate these expenses by increasing throughput, lowering error rates, and minimizing labor-related overhead. This creates a win-win scenario for operators aiming to improve efficiency while keeping service levels high.
Six Steps to Automation Success
For organizations looking to integrate automation amid ongoing global disruption, a strategic approach is vital. Here are six foundational steps to consider:
-
Get Buy-In: Early engagement with frontline workers is crucial. Automation should be framed as a way to ease physical strain and improve workplace safety.
-
Collaborate Across Teams: Ensure alignment among stakeholders—from executives to IT teams—on objectives and key performance indicators (KPIs) for the automation process.
-
Consider Risks and Edge Cases: Disruptive events amplify variability. Anticipate fragile products or irregular parcels in vendor selection and workflow design.
-
Train and Test Thoroughly: Implement training programs that emphasize refining machine learning and preparing human workers for evolving workflows.
-
Create a Problem-Solving Strategy: Establish protocols for technical failures or process disruptions to minimize downtime during peak volumes.
- Commit to Continuous Training: Ongoing training and improvement are vital as tariff environments and shipping patterns evolve.
Beyond Throughput: Building True Resilience
Automation’s biggest value, especially during global disruptions, lies in building resilience. Predicting demand with AI tools helps companies balance inventory levels, reducing shortages and overstock.
Inside warehouses, integrated management systems offer real-time visibility into parcel movement, ensuring managers know where goods are and how quickly they are moving. This allows for proactive intervention to keep operations on track.
Robotics operates alongside human workers, automating repetitive tasks while allowing supervisors to address unusual situations, combining the consistency of machines with the judgment of human oversight. This dual approach helps maintain warehouse operations amidst sudden changes.
Looking Ahead: Robotics as the New Baseline
Global trade will likely continue to face uncertainty. Factors like tariffs, geopolitical issues, and supply-demand imbalances necessitate that warehouses prepare for unexpected challenges. The intersection of AI, robotics, and human expertise presents a promising path forward.
When automation systems enhance human adaptability, warehouses can absorb shocks without losing momentum. This agility is essential for navigating the complexities of modern global commerce. With billions invested in warehouse automation, new AI tools are setting the stage for long-term resilience in supply chains.
About the author: Erik Nieves is co-founder and CEO of Plus One Robotics, a software company developing 3D and AI-powered vision software for robots in logistics automation. Previously, Erik was technology director for Yaskawa Motoman Robotics, overseeing technology roadmaps and emerging applications. During his 25+ year tenure at Yaskawa, he held various leadership roles both in the US and abroad. Erik also serves on the board at Robotics Industries Association (RIA) and actively contributes to public policy on robotics.