The AI-fueled Vibe Coding Boom: A Practical Overview

The vibe coding movement, where anyone can create an app or website using simple text prompts, appears to be losing momentum. Recent research from Barclays indicates a significant drop in traffic for some of the hottest platforms like Lovable and Vercel’s v0 after a period of rapid growth early this year. Google Trends data corroborates this trend, showing a spike in interest during summer followed by a notable slowdown.

Insights from Barclays Research

The decline in usage raises crucial questions for startups that celebrated exponential growth in annual recurring revenue (ARR) just months ago. Many analysts speculate that this remarkable revenue might primarily come from monthly subscribers who quickly cancel their subscriptions. This uncertainty leads to skepticism about the sustainability of such impressive numbers. Barclays analysts have highlighted that current economic factors point to potentially unstable growth for these companies.

The Churn Challenge

Rising customer churn rates pose a considerable issue for vibe coding services. Eric Simons, CEO of Bolt.new, mentions that the market is experiencing a shift where users quickly cycle through subscriptions without commitment. This churn necessitates the development of more engaging and sticky offerings to retain customers in a competitive environment. As operators focus on improving customer retention, they risk alienating new users by increasing prices to mitigate losses.

Notable Traffic Declines

Recent data reveal concerning drops in website visits for several prominent vibe coding platforms:

• Lovable has seen a 40% drop since reaching $100 million in ARR.
• Vercel’s v0 traffic has plummeted by 64% since May, potentially due to new security measures implemented.
• Bolt.new has declined by 27% since June.
• Replit, while more stable, has also experienced a slight cooling in traffic.

Such shifts prompt speculation on the overall health of the vibe coding sector.

The Inference Whale Effect

The economic impact of high-volume users, dubbed "inference whales," has complicated the business models of vibe coding services. Heavy usage can lead to skyrocketing costs, forcing companies to rethink their pricing strategies. This shift in approach may inadvertently limit user growth, as increased costs often deter potential customers, further complicating market dynamics.

Experimentation and the Mass Market

Vibe coding tools blend features from drag-and-drop website builders and traditional coding environments, making them appealing for early adopters. However, many users hit a wall when trying to finalize their projects, particularly regarding that last 5% of polish needed for a complete product. Mainstream users may still be in the experimental phase when it comes to using AI interfaces, thus impacting market adoption.

Legacy Players and Future Potential

Established companies are still identifying opportunities within the vibe coding landscape. For instance, Wix recently acquired Base44, an AI-native site builder, signaling confidence in the segment’s potential. Similarly, other giants like GoDaddy are exploring ways to tap into the vibe coding market, illustrating a continued interest despite the current fluctuations.

Staying Relevant in the AI Conversation

Despite signs of cooling interest, the vibe coding trend isn’t disappearing. Analysts at Barclays emphasize that as everyday consumers familiarize themselves with AI chat interfaces, interest in vibe coding may resurge. While it may take time for vibe coding to reach mass-market acceptance, its presence in the tech conversation is likely to endure well into 2026. The ongoing evolution in the sector suggests that there remains much to explore.