Bitcoin is currently navigating a complex phase of consolidation after an impressive multi-month uptrend that took off in April. Recently, Bitcoin has experienced moments of heightened volatility and significant selling pressure, yet it has managed to maintain stability above key support levels. This persistence keeps the broader bearish narrative intact, leading some analysts to believe that a rebound beyond all-time highs could be imminent in the coming weeks.
Amidst the uncertainty and cautious market sentiment, long-term holders and institutional investments continue to provide essential support for Bitcoin’s price stability. Even as short-term corrections remain feasible, the overall market outlook is optimistic, suggesting that BTC is gearing up for another upward surge.
Recent analyses from CryptoQuant’s analyst Crypto Onchain reveal insights from a Bitcoin TFT AI Forecast. This model indicates that Bitcoin may remain within a mostly neutral price range for the next month. Predictions suggest that Bitcoin will hover around current prices, without sharp movements upward or downward in the near term. This stabilization suggests that the market is digesting its recently acquired gains before embarking on a new trajectory.
Bitcoin AI Forecast Signals Increasing Uncertainty
The Temporal Fusion Transformer (TFT) AI Forecast indicates that Bitcoin will likely trade in a neutral range in the upcoming weeks, but rising uncertainty is noteworthy. The model estimates Bitcoin’s current price at $110,669, predicting a slight decline to $109,451 over the next seven days. Looking further ahead, the 30-day forecast hints at a 1.72% drop to around $108,771, reinforcing the notion of consolidation rather than a definitive bullish or bearish breakout.
A particularly significant insight is not merely the modest predicted downturn but the pronounced widening of confidence intervals. This model forecasts that uncertainty will exceed 50% by month-end, indicating elevated risk and the possibility of intense volatility. Such uncertainty can manifest in multiple scenarios.
The primary scenario, which integrates both the WaveNet and TFT models, predicts Bitcoin will fluctuate within a $108,000 to $120,000 channel. This range-bound movement is likely to dominate most of September. However, a surprise scenario could emerge towards the month’s end. Should a strong catalyst arise or sentiment shift dramatically, the heightened uncertainty may lead to a dramatic price move—either a significant breakout to new highs or a sharp decline.
As the market grapples with slight selling pressure in the short term, the last week of September is poised to be pivotal, with volatility likely determining Bitcoin’s next major movement.
Testing Support Within Ongoing Consolidation
The latest 3-day Bitcoin chart reflects a current trading price of $112,146, marking a rebound of 1.77% post-volatility. Bitcoin finds itself in a consolidation phase following a rejection from its all-time high near $124,500. Crucially, it has defended a vital support zone around $110,000, which has acted as a safeguard during recent downturns.
Examining the moving averages offers a clearer picture: the 50-day SMA is positioned at $107,765, while the 100-day SMA is at $100,647, serving as robust medium-term support levels. In contrast, the 200-day SMA sits significantly lower at $81,576, highlighting Bitcoin’s sustained bullish cycle, even amidst short-term weaknesses. Maintaining levels above the 50-day average will be critical for affirming this uptrend’s resilience.
Immediate resistance appears around the $115,000 mark, a threshold Bitcoin struggles to breach in recent attempts. A successful breakout beyond this barrier could pave the way toward the $120,000 to $123,000 range, where the all-time high lies. Conversely, if Bitcoin fails to maintain above $110,000, further downside may emerge, potentially targeting the $107,000 to $105,000 range.
Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView
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